Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
